HOW CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC WILL END? 5 POSSIBLE SCENARIOS

Nowadays, everyone in the world is suffering from COVID19, aka Coronavirus pandemic. Obviously, the one million dollar question now is when Coronavirus pandemic will end? But, the one billion dollar question is HOW Coronavirus pandemic will end? As a traveler, I wonder how would be the travel in the time of Coronavirus pandemic? In this article, I will try to answer the questions more than asking questions. So let’s go.

THE SIZE OF THE DAMAGE

As we knew, Coronavirus pandemic started in Wuhan city, china, at the beginning of 2020. Since that time, all countries all over the world raised the pandemic alarm. Now, more than 8 million persons infected with Coronavirus in the world. More than two million in the USA and nearly one million in brazil are definitely Coronavirus cases. Also, nearly half-million persons around the globe are victims of Coronavirus pandemic.

Coronavirus Statistics on June 18, 2020

The damage is not only in the number of people, but also the damage to the world economy is even more devastating. Clearly, the developed countries look more stable, yet they are now in agony because of financial loss. All I mentioned before makes it look nonsense to talk about traveling and tourism. The good news, the world now is indeed recovering from Coronavirus pandemic. Even the number of new cases and deaths is rising; the number of cured person increases, and the death rate decreases significantly.

BEFORE YOU READ THE SCENARIOS

So, the world is partially and slowly recovering from the Coronavirus pandemic. Then, the reasonable question now is when Coronavirus pandemic will end? Well, the answer is neither easy nor straightforward. I can tell you that in terms of traveling we are talking about months. Regarding your regular life before the Coronavirus pandemic, we are talking about years. I know it may be shocking, but that’s a truth now, and all of us have to adapt to those facts.

Now to the more profound and realistic question, how Coronavirus pandemic will end? The accurate and short answer is no one knows. Here I will provide you with five possible scenarios that could be the end to Coronavirus pandemic. But before I start, I have to tell you why I think that these five scenarios are possible. The first reason, they are realistic scenarios. I mean, it happened before, and it could happen again. The second reason, I tried to mix what I have learned from history with my medical experience as a doctor. And I end with these five possible scenarios for the end of Coronavirus pandemic.

Also, keep in mind that I based all the five scenarios on the fact that that Coronavirus will remain. As I said earlier, we have to accept the truth that the Coronavirus is a new member of the family. I am talking about the family of the viruses that could infect humans and end their lives too. So, I ask for all your wishes and prayers for the sixth scenario to happen. The sixth scenario, which I didn’t mention here, is about the Coronavirus pandemic that will end, and the virus will be eradicated. Hopefully, Coronavirus will go and become part of history the same as dinosaurs.

HOW CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC WILL END?

So now let’s begin with the possible scenarios of how the Coronavirus pandemic will end:

1. PLAGUE SCENARIO

In the dark ages, the plague killed millions around the world. Now it only belongs to history. However, it is not entirely over like the dinosaurs, the plague still exists. But because of the modernizations and sanitation, plague is controllable and incapable of inducing pandemics. So this is my first scenario on how the Coronavirus pandemic will end. Coronavirus will be part of history and movies. Yet, it still exists and may induce sporadic cases but not a global pandemic. The scenario is similar to what happened to the SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, aka SARS-COV2), MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome), and Swine flu, aka H1N1. In my opinion, this is the first scenario and the most predictable one. Coronavirus will persist as a disease affecting a limiting number of people. There will be no specific treatment or vaccine, but Coronavirus will lose its spreading power.

2. HIV scenario

In the early 1980s, the world was shocked by the news about the new virus. HIV (Human Immune Deficiency virus) and AIDS (Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome) are not synonymous, but they are closely related to each other. Now after decades, how HIV and AIDS look to you? Definitely, it is not that horrible virus, and you are not panic only by hearing its name. So, this is the second scenario for how the Coronavirus pandemic will end. Coronavirus will be there, but it will not be under the spot the same as it is now. Everyone will just ignore it, and you will hear the term COVID19 only in medical books and medical conferences.

Many thanks to the front liners, who sacrifice on our behalf. I expect in this scenario that the medical research and the science could reach a diagnosis and effective management to Coronavirus pandemic. And Coronavirus will not be such a terrifying disease. In the end, we will adapt, And Coronavirus will be more like a chronic disease or seasonal flu. People infected with Coronavirus will take their medicines and live a long healthy life. I hope!

3. TB scenario

Tuberculosis, aka TB, is a bacteria, not a virus, and it is a weak but resistant organism. For centuries, TB invaded millions of people around the world. In the new aura, the disease is only limited to some developing countries, thanks to obligatory vaccination worldwide. Many countries now ask for a medical certificate about TB conditions, especially if you are coming for TB endemic areas.

4. GODZILLA SCENARIO

As in the movie Godzilla, the Coronavirus pandemic will end, and the entire planet is celebrating. Then, a dramatic modification to the virus results in a prolonged Coronavirus pandemic. The Coronavirus pandemic strikes again, and this time it will be more painful. In this tragic scenario, the number of cases and death rates are higher. Now, the social distancing will not be a hashtag on twitter, but it will be a lifesaving procedure. Now it will be a race among scientists to find effective management to put an end to the disaster.

I can say it will be similar to the current situation but with intense and prolonged precautions. The Coronavirus pandemic will remain with us for years, maybe like world war II. Also, the numbers of the new cases and the death is keep rising, until we could reach a vaccine that kills the Coronavirus. Even, this Godzilla scene can get worse and end with the scenario of the movie Interstellar. Well, this is not an option, at least for me.

5. THE SECOND WAVE

This scenario is similar to the Godzilla scenario but on a personal level as we all know that the Coronavirus is very weak, and most of the cases recover within a few days. Even maybe you are infected with the virus silently without any symptoms. That’s true, but the long term effect of the Coronavirus on our bodies is not known. Will the survivors of the Coronavirus suffer from health problems in the future? The second wave scenario is expecting what may happen to our bodies after 5, 10 years, or more.

Now, after five years or more, supposed to be the Coronavirus pandemic is over. Either in the earlier scenarios or any other scenario. The second wave will not be a Coronavirus pandemic or the seasonal flu, but it will be an increase in health problems. The varieties include breathing problems ranging from minor to life-threatening crises. Even worse, the possibility of cancers can be higher, especially in smokers. Many diseases have unknown reasons; scientists believe it is related to environmental factors and unknown viruses. Will the Coronavirus increase the chances of other diseases and cancers? The answer is unknown and unexpected. I hope not.

So five possible theories on how Coronavirus pandemic will end cover all the varieties and extremities. Still could be a sixth, seventh, or even more theories or the virus can surprise us. No matter what will happen, the world has changed and will never be the same as before Coronavirus. As a traveler, the need to keep healthy travel habits is now vital. I hope, and I pray for the best for us all. Please share your thoughts in the comments and tell me if you believe which scenario is more realistic.